Isaacson Update & Special Reports

Encouraging Start to 2012 - April 26, 2012

Stocks and other risk assets surged in the first quarter, continuing the strong run that began in the fourth quarter of last year. In each of the past two quarters, domestic stocks gained about 12%. Developed foreign stocks increased nearly 12% in the quarter, emerging-markets stocks gained 14%, small-cap U.S. stocks were up 12%, and high-yield bonds rose 5%. In contrast, the core investment-grade bond index was flat, as Treasury bond prices declined and yields increased.

Among the drivers of the rally in risk assets are the receding fear of a European financial crisis (at least for the time being), and positive U.S. economic data points, particularly with respect to employment, consumer sentiment and bank stress tests. However, the huge amount of debt in the developed world will continue to drive expectations in the years ahead. All options will involve economic pain compounded by political uncertainty.

As we move through 2012, it will be important to plan for a very significant date: January 1, 2013.  This is when the Bush-era tax cuts, the temporary payroll tax cut, and extended unemployment benefits are due to expire, and $1.2 trillion of automatic Federal spending cuts begin to kick in. Additionally, the current $5 million dollar per person estate and gift tax exemptions are set to revert back to $1 million each. It seems unlikely that it will actually play out this way without any modifications, but the risk of political dysfunction, particularly in an election year, remains very high.

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